VisionGroup Blog

Why AI Hasn’t Fixed Retail Category Decisions Yet

Written by Vision Group | Sep 15, 2025 9:05:46 PM

In retail, AI has made it easier to model different shelf scenarios, test assortments, and surface shopping patterns. Yet when it’s time to commit, many category teams hesitate.

The analysis may be solid, but no one wants to be the person who says, “Yes, let’s do this,” because it tends to be hard to defend, and risky to own.

Why Category Decisions Still Stall, Even With Better Models and More Data

Retail planning teams are better equipped than ever. They have richer data, more advanced models, and faster ways to run simulations. But in practice, decisions still slow down at the same point: when the output needs to become a call someone is willing to stand behind.

The real problem shows up after the insight is on the slide. Analysts can show the numbers, and category leaders can see the opportunity. Sales still has to explain it to a retailer, and leadership needs to understand the tradeoffs.

The reasoning behind what the model is proposing is hard to carry from one room to the next. Until teams can move from “the model says” to “here’s why this makes sense,” AI will keep improving analysis faster than it improves outcomes.

How Natural Language Models Turn Retail Analysis Into Decisions People Can Explain

Natural Language Models (NLM) change category work because they shift the focus from interpreting recommendations to explaining them. Instead of forcing teams to translate charts, tables, and simulations into a story after the fact, the reasoning starts to surface alongside the results.

That matters because an assortment optimization model might show that removing one SKU lifts total category sales, but the real question is always the same: where does that volume go, and why should anyone believe it will hold in a real store. When the explanation isn’t clear, confidence drops fast.

The practical value of models with natural language isn’t that teams can ask questions in plain English. It’s that the answers come back framed as tradeoffs, assumptions, and outcomes that people can repeat. When category leaders can say, “Here’s what changes, here’s what stays the same, and here’s the risk we’re taking,” decisions stop getting stuck in translation.

The Part Nobody Likes to Admit: AI Outputs That Can’t Be Defended Don’t Get Used

Most AI-driven retail planning work breaks down when someone asks a simple follow-up question and the room goes quiet. Why this change. What happens if it doesn’t work.

That’s when teams realize the output may be accurate, but it isn’t defensible. Different tools produce different answers. Assumptions live in spreadsheets no one wants to open mid-meeting. The logic behind demand shifts or space reallocations gets buried under technical detail. Faced with that uncertainty, people do what feels safest: they soften the recommendation, or move on without acting.

When retail category decisions can’t be explained clearly enough to survive a leadership review or a conversation with a retailer, they never leave the slide deck. And no matter how advanced the model is, unused recommendations don’t change results.

Also read: How Machine Learning Helps Retailers Shift From Batch Planning to Adaptive Assortments

What High-Confidence CPG Teams Do Differently With AI Results

High-confidence category teams don’t treat AI findings as answers. They treat them as starting points for a decision they know they’ll have to explain, defend, and live with. 

Instead of asking whether the model is right, they ask what they’re giving up to get the upside. Which SKUs are losing space, which ones are gaining it, and under what conditions that change holds. They surface assumptions early, not after someone challenges them in a meeting. They spend less time debating lift percentages and more time tracing where that volume is actually expected to land.

This is where store-level thinking matters most. Decisions that look clean in aggregate often unravel once they hit specific stores, formats, or clusters. High-confidence teams pressure-test results at that level before committing. They want to know what changes in a high-velocity store versus a low-traffic one, how constraints show up on an actual shelf, and where the risk really sits.

By the time a recommendation reaches sales or leadership, it’s no longer just what the recommendation implies. It’s a clear story about tradeoffs, impact, and downside. That’s what allows decisions to hold up outside the analytics environment, in conversations where context matters more than precision. And that’s the difference between AI results that look good on paper and decisions that actually get executed.

How Curate Helps Teams Move From “The Model Says” to “Here’s Why This Works”

Most shelf optimization tools stop at producing recommendations. Curate does the harder part: helping teams understand where those recommendations hold up and where they don’t.

With Curate, teams can see exactly where a category recommendation holds up and where it breaks, before it ever turns into a stalled decision or a shelf-level miss. They can see how removing or adding SKUs impacts volume across a portfolio, how those changes differ by cluster, and where constraints start to break the logic of a recommendation. The point is to surface the reasoning early, before a recommendation turns into a stalled decision or a quiet miss on the shelf.

That clarity changes how teams show up in conversations. Not defending a tool, but explaining a decision they’re prepared to stand behind.

Turn Stalled Recommendations Into Concrete Retail Decisions

The fastest way forward is to take one recommendation that keeps getting delayed and force clarity around the consequences.

High-performing teams don’t try to fix everything at once. They pressure-test one decision until the reasoning is clear enough to survive a retailer conversation. Once that happens, action follows.

Curate helps teams work through those tradeoffs at the store level, so decisions don’t stall when it’s time to commit.

If this is the gap your team keeps running into, we can walk through how Curate works using your own categories.